
6: Future Climate: Projected Average
Future Climate: Projected Average interprets computer-model simulations of future climate in the region—what the patterns might be over the coming century for temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation (long-term weather), and hydrologic (water-related) conditions, such as snow water equivalent, soil moisture, and runoff for the Colorado River and in other basins.
Citation:
Cayan, D., M. Tyree, K. E. Kunkel, C. Castro, A. Gershunov, J. Barsugli, A. J. Ray, J. Overpeck, M. Anderson, J. Russell, B. Rajagopalan, I. Rangwala, and P. Duffy. 2013. “Future Climate: Projected Average.” In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, edited by G. Garfin, A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy, 101–125. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance. Washington, DC: Island Press.

Temperatures in the Southwest will rise substantially (by at least 3°F—and up to 9°F—over recent historical averages) over the 21st century.

Climate models project reduced Southwest mountain snowpack during springtime for the rest of this century, mostly due to warmer temperatures.
Substantial parts of the Southwest region will experience reductions in runoff and streamflow from the middle to the end of the 21st century.
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