6: Future Climate: Projected Average

Future Climate: Projected Average interprets computer-model simulations of future climate in the region—what the patterns might be over the coming century for temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation (long-term weather), and hydrologic (water-related) conditions, such as snow water equivalent, soil moisture, and runoff for the Colorado River and in other basins.


Cayan, D., M. Tyree, K. E. Kunkel, C. Castro, A. Gershunov, J. Barsugli, A. J. Ray, J. Overpeck, M. Anderson, J. Russell, B. Rajagopalan, I. Rangwala, and P. Duffy. 2013. “Future Climate: Projected Average.” In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, edited by G. Garfin, A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy, 101–125. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance. Washington, DC: Island Press.

Temperatures in the Southwest will rise substantially (by at least 3°F—and up to 9°F—over recent historical averages) over the 21st century.
Full Chapter PDF: 
Fact Sheet PDF: 


Contact us 

Media representatives, please email swclimate@email.arizona.edu
or call 520-626-4372.
For Coordinating Lead Author contact information see 'Authors' page here.